December is a great time to look at avocado volumes and speculate how the 2023 calendar year will end. Although the final numbers won’t be available until the second week of January, it’s easy to see that Mexico and Colombia will keep the states well-supplied into the new year. According to West Pak Avocado’s Director of Sourcing Stephen Sheldon, we should see decent sizing and eating quality with ample supply to meet the demand through the big game in February. Great news, since America loves its rock’n guac almost as much as football.
So, how did avo volumes fare in 2023, and what trends should we look forward to in 2024?
| California | Mexico | Peru | Colombia | |
| 2021 | 251,593,334 | 2,378,027,595 | 189,810,684 | 6,616,000 |
| 2022 | 266,083,553 | 2,079,380,102 | 276,588,975 | 3,675,518 |
| 2023 | 220,840,422 | 2,482,588,754 | 166,225,869 | 25,152,088 |
According to data from the Hass Avocado Board (HAB), the 2023 California avocado season ended on cue in October with a total of 220 million pounds. The original estimate in Q1 of 2023 by the California Avocado Commission (CAC) was 257 million pounds of Golden State avocados for the season. However, the 220-million-pound volume of California avocados for 2023 was down 45 million pounds or 17% from 2022 but only 30 million pounds or 12.22% from 2021.
But not to worry. According to CAC, this year’s rains have likely set up a good crop in 2024. Although the preliminary 2024 crop estimates show a season mostly on par with 2023, the stronger bloom from this past spring could mean a larger harvest next spring. We anxiously await CAC’s final pre-season crop estimates to see if the new year may increase production.
Mexico saw the opposite trend as California: nearly 2.5 billion pounds of fruit traveled to the U.S. in 2023, 402 million pounds or 19.36% more than in 2022, and 104 million pounds or 4.37% more than in 2021.
According to data from the Association of Avocado Exporting Producers and Packers of Mexico (APEAM), Mexico has emerged as the primary supplier of fresh avocados to the U.S., accounting for over 80% of recent imports.
Avocados From Mexico (AFM) president Alvaro Luque announced in August 2023 that the association broke its 2022 record by 2%. With the association’s fiscal year starting July 1st, he explained the state of Michoacan appears to have a crop for the 2023FY that is similar to the previous year, and import volume from Jalisco is growing exponentially, which means another record year if all goes as expected.
In 2023, Hass Avocado Board reported avo-exports from Peru to the U.S. were down 110 million pounds or 39.90% from 2022 but only 12.42% or 23 million pounds from 2021. According to a November 2023 FreshFruitPortal.com article, Peru’s Hass Avocado Producers Association (Prohass) President Juan Carlos Paredes estimated America-bound exports to be around 20% less in 2023 than in 2022.
This year, Colombia supplied the most significant growth in avocado volume to the states. Volume for 2023 came in at 25 million pounds, 21 million more than in 2022 – a 625% increase year over year. The volume from 2021 to 2022 saw a 44.45% dip, but 2023 was still 18 million pounds or 280% more than 2021.
As Colombia increases its volume to the U.S. market, the Colombia Avocado Board (CAB) is working on promotional programs. CAB is authorized under the U.S. avocado marketing order administered by the USDA through the Hass Avocado Board to spend a percentage of the assessment dollars generated by Colombian imports to promote avocados in the U.S. market.
“As a newcomer to the industry, we recognize many buyers still haven’t tried Colombia avocados, so they don’t know what to expect in quality and taste,” said Colombia Avocado Board Executive Director Manuel Michel. “We believe we have worked to build a program that will meet and exceed their expectations for both.”
As the numbers continue to climb for Colombian avocados making their way onto plates across the country, the future looks very promising indeed.
Let one of our Avo Experts assess your needs and customize a program that makes the most of various countries of origin, here.
